This guide explains how to convert threat models (STRIDE/PASTA/DFDs/attack trees) into prioritized, actionable risk backlogs using frameworks (CVSS, FAIR, NIST, ATT&CK), hybrid scoring, and AI-assisted triage — with special attention to IoT/OT safety and operational constraints.
Risk Assessment and Prioritization Frameworks — for Hackers, Defenders, and AI That Thinks It Knows Better "You can't protect what you can't prioritize." — Some very tired security lead at 3 AM You're coming off STRIDE/PASTA and DFDs/Attack Trees (yes, you made weaponized c...
Why this matters (especially for IoT / OT) Availability is safety : In OT/ICS environments, downtime isn't just inconvenient — it can be dangerous. Prioritization must weight availability and physical safety heavily. Scale & heterogeneity : IoT fleets + legacy PLCs = impossible-to-scan s...
Quick taxonomy: what we mean by "framework" Assessment frameworks define how to quantify or describe risk (CVSS, FAIR, NIST). Prioritization heuristics turn scores into action (risk matrices, risk registers, ROI-based triage). Threat-context linkage uses STRIDE/PASTA/ATT&CK to ...
Practical step-by-step: From threat model to prioritized backlog Inventory & contextualize Start with your DFDs and attack trees: list assets, dataflows, and threat nodes. Add OT-specific attributes: safety impact, fail-safe modes, physical exposure, remediation window. For each threat/...
A useful hybrid scoring pseudocode (copy-pasteable concept) # weights tuned for your org w_likelihood = 0.4 w_impact = 0.45 w_detectability = 0.15 # each factor normalized 0..1 score = w_likelihood*likelihood + w_impact*impact + w_detectability*(1 - detectability) # bucket thresholds if score >...
Where AI helps (and where it trips up) Pros: Large-scale correlation: AI can scan telemetry and correlate subtle precursors to incidents (e.g., unusual PLC command timing patterns). Automated prioritization: ML models can learn which past incidents led to costly outcomes and raise priorities ...
Prioritization policies — quick templates Critical: fix within 24–72 hours; patch/mitigate + weekly validation. High: plan and schedule within 30 days; temporary mitigations if remediation >30 days. Medium: track in next sprint; monitor risk degradation. Low: backlog; reassess quarterl...
Closing — cheat-sheet & sanity checks Always tie risk to business impact (dollars, safety, reputation). Use multiple frameworks: CVSS for technical granularity, FAIR for executive conversations, ATT&CK to map detection gaps. Let AI augment ranking, not replace human judgement — espec...
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